Fire Cinderbloom ComboTier 3
at National-SEA 2025
decks
4
(1.5% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
30
12-17-1
overall winrate
41.7%
ELO-adjusted winrate
32.4%
avg ELO -6.4 per match
expected value
45.2%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
40.0%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1427
· median 1430
· range 1282–1568
(4 pilots with an ELO rating)
1028
Q1 1294
Q3 1463
1736
50% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
25% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 18.9% | 5 | 3-2-0 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 49.6% | -0.2 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 14.3% | 7 | 3-3-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -1.1 |
| Wind Allies | 13.6% | 3 | 0-3-0 | 0.0% | 28.6% | 28.6% | -16.0 |
| Fire Aggro | 10.9% | 6 | 2-4-0 | 33.3% | 40.0% | 24.3% | -13.7 |
| Water Genbu | 6.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 28.3% | -20.8 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 6.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.4% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 29.5% | -19.7 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 62.0% | +11.6 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 3.4% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 59.4% | +9.1 |
| Water Allies | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 2.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 1.9% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.6% | -13.5 |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Luxem Assassin | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Dawn of Ashes | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Luxem Assassin | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 0.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Rai | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Lorraine | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Crux Mage | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Penguin Mill | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Arcane | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Byakko | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slice & Dice | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 0.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 4 from this event
The 4 public Fire Cinderbloom Combo decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
